Things to know about Canada’s political crisis

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation on Monday signals the extent of the unpopularity facing the country’s progressive Liberal Party, which has dominated its politics for decades, heading into elections later this year.

Trudeau’s decision to step down as the party’s leader and prime minister sets off a competitive race for the head of the party and to challenge the rising popularity of the opposition Conservatives in elections set to be held by Oct. 20 at the latest.

“I’m a fighter, every bone in my body has always told me to fight,” Trudeau said during a press conference announcing his resignation.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.”

Resignation of Chrystia Freeland

On 16 December, 2024, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Trudeau's cabinet.Trudeau had made clear to Freeland on Friday, 13 December that he no longer wished for her to serve as finance minister and that she would be offered another Cabinet position; she instead decided to resign altogether from his Cabinet, saying that "to be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence.

Freeland's resignation occurred in the context of the incoming Trump administration in the United States threatening to impose 25 per cent tariffs upon Canada, with Freeland writing to Trudeau that Canada faces a grave challenge due to this. The previous week, reports had circulated about a rift between the prime minister and deputy prime minister, with Freeland opposing Trudeau’s recent promise of $250 cheques to working Canadians who earned $150,000 or less in 2023. Freeland referred to the proposal as a "costly political gimmick" and argued that the Canadian government should "[keep] our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war."

Freeland resigned hours before she was to announce the government's fall economic statement.  Government house leader Karina Gould presented it in the House of Commons later that day. The statement showed a deficit of $61.9 billion for 2023–24, exceeding Freeland's target of $40.1 billion or less, and left Trump's tariff threats largely unaddressed.

Why did Trudeau resign?

The rising cost of living, increasing anti-immigrant sentiment and concerns over President-elect Trump’s economic threats to Canada have all contributed to growing disillusionment with Trudeau’s leadership.

Having lost key allies in the Liberal Party and facing a likely vote of no confidence by the opposition Conservatives and New Democratic Party, Trudeau called for the Canadian Parliament to be put into prorogue until March 24.

Trudeau’s decision essentially freezes the Parliament from carrying out any legislative work and gives the Liberals about three months to hold internal elections for the party’s next leader.

Trudeau said he intends to remain head of the party until a new leader is chosen.

The March 24 deadline is significant, running up against the deadline for the country’s annual budget and the opening of a new session of Parliament.

The Trump effect

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump continued his rhetoric about making Canada an American state today, saying he intends to use "economic force" to do so/CP24

Trump quickly started causing headaches for Trudeau after winning November’s election. The incoming president weeks later threatened a 25 percent tariff on Canadian exports to the U.S. unless Ottawa took action on illegal immigration and drug trafficking across the border.

Trump’s threats and Trudeau’s efforts to mollify the president-elect — taking a trip to president-elect’s Florida residence at Mar-a-Lago — fed into criticisms that the prime minister was weak.

Trudeau, who has until now not directly commented on Trump’s repeated and escalating comments about annexing Canada, appeared to have had enough.

“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Trudeau said in a statement posted to social media.

“Workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partners.”

The Liberal party posted a map of North America on X labelling the United States and Canada as “Not the United States,” with the caption: “For anyone who may be confused.”

For weeks, Trump has trolled Trudeau as Canada’s “governor” and said the country should be America’s 51st state. Trump, in response to Trudeau’s resignation, said Canada could avoid tariffs and that “taxes would go way down” if the country merged with the U.S.

Though Trump has suggested “many people” in Canada would love becoming part of the U.S., a poll from Dec. 10 found that only 13 percent of Canadians felt that way.

Who will take over?

Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, said he wouldn’t be surprised if Liberals moved quickly to hold elections and put in place a new prime minister.

This could demonstrate some stability ahead of Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 and give extra time for the Liberals to sell their new leaders to Canadians ahead of general elections.

“I suspect that they’ll be panicked enough that they don’t want nobody in charge when Trump signs all his first-day executive orders and just starts running fast,” Sands said.

Sands listed a number of contenders for the top post, but he said former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland represents a clear break and change from Trudeau’s tenure.  

“The fact that she resigned and triggered the crisis that led to Trudeau going is politically brilliant,” he said. “It makes a clear break between her and the prime minister so that she can be the candidate of change.”

In mid-December, Freeland, also a deputy prime minister, resigned in protest to Trudeau’s spending plans, accusing him of failing to confront the threats of Trump’s tariffs and the impact they might have on the Canadian economy.

Other names Sands floated include Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and a Trudeau ally; Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly; and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne.

Sands also raised the possibility of Canadian Transport Minister Anita Anand, whom he called “a star in the Trudeau government,” saying she rose to prominence through her successful turn in acquiring vaccines and personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. A former defense minister, she is credited with completing Canada’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets from the U.S.  

Conservatives on the rise

The Conservative Party headed by Pierre Poilievre is well-positioned to take power when elections are held this year. They hold a commanding 24 point polling lead over the Liberals, according to recent data.

Poilievre has been described as a Trump-like figure, casting himself as a victim of the elite and the media, with a penchant for insults and provocations.

The Conservative platform includes eliminating a Liberal tax on carbon — a tax that is meant to encourage consumers and businesses to choose more environmentally friendly energy production.

“Ax the tax,” Poilievre said in a video message responding to Trudeau’s resignation.

Canada’s voters are also increasingly frustrated with the Liberals over the cost of living, immigration and crime.

“Trudeau was great at making sunny announcements, but terrible at delivering results,” Sands said.  

Opposition parties

Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre referenced the reported rift between Trudeau and Freeland the previous week during Question Period on 10 December, remarking that Trudeau had "lost control of his own cabinet" and rhetorically asking "which one of [Trudeau and Freeland] is going to win?", while Deputy Opposition Leader and Ontario Conservative MP Melissa Lantsman accused Trudeau of "bullying his female finance minister".Freeland responded by stating that "the only would-be bullies in this House are directly opposite [the Liberal benches]," insisting that she and Trudeau were "united" and denying claims of the rift.After Freeland's resignation, Poilievre claimed Trudeau had "lost control, yet clings to power."

Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, whose party had already voted alongside the Conservatives to oust the Trudeau government in the last of multiple unsuccessful motions of non-confidence, remarked on 16 December that "the Trudeau government is done.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, whose party had until earlier in 2024 been in a supply-and-confidence arrangement with the Liberal minority government, and even afterward had continued to support the government in confidence votes, said on 17 December that Trudeau's Liberals "are focused on themselves" and that Trudeau "has to go," marking the first time he called for Trudeau's resignation. He nonetheless said that "all options are on the table", when asked whether he would vote no confidence in the government. Subsequently, on 20 December, Singh stated that the NDP "will vote to bring this government down" in an open letter posted on X.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May called 16 December an "unprecedented day" in Canadian politics and said she was "shocked by the events of today."

Quebec Premier François Legault avoided saying whether he retained confidence in Trudeau following Freeland's resignation, stating it would be "up to the people in the House of Commons to decide how they will vote in the coming weeks, the coming months." He had asked the Bloc Québécois to withdraw support from the Liberal minority government back in September 2024.

Spending fights ahead

The Canadian government is expected to propose its new budget by April, a process that would allow opposition parties to trigger a vote of no confidence, collapse the government and head to elections.

The high cost of living, Trump’s tariff threats and criticism from the U.S. and others that Canada might not meet NATO’s 2 percent defense spending guidelines by 2032 are some of the headaches its next leaders will need to contend with.

The vast majority of Canadians — or 86 percent — are concerned about Trump’s threats, according to data from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute in Canada. Half of Canadians say they prefer a hard-line approach, “that is, even if the tariffs are ultimately implemented, they do not feel Canada should let itself be bullied.”

Overall, Canadians are pessimistic about the state of the economy and nervous about the impact Trump’s incoming administration might have on it, according to Bloomberg/Nanos Research.

Findings for the final week of December showed a decrease in overall positivity from 49.96 in the previous week to 49.08, according to a report from the Canadian industry news site Wealth Professional. A reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment.

Public

• In a poll conducted by Abacus Data on the day after Freeland's resignation, 67% of Canadians wanted Trudeau to resign, compared to just 19% who wanted him to stay on as prime minister. While the Liberals dropped one point in nationwide voting intentions from the week prior (from 21% to 20%), the Conservatives, increasing one point to 45%, opened up their largest lead (25 points) since Abacus began tracking voting intentions. The Liberals were just two points ahead of the third-place NDP, at 20% to 18%. 58% of those polled also said that they wanted an immediate election. 338Canada's analysis projection for 22 December saw the Liberals' expected nationwide seat count decrease from 47 to just 39, losing even second place to the Bloc. The site gave the Liberals only a 36% chance of forming the Official Opposition (to the Bloc's 61%).

Reactions

Domestic

• Official opposition leader Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party emphasized his calls for an early federal election, stating that Liberal MPs "want to protect their pensions and paycheques by sweeping their hated leader under the rug months before an election to trick you, and then do it all over again."
• NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stated that "The problem is not just Justin Trudeau. It's every minister that's been calling the shots, it's every Liberal MP that looked down their nose at Canadians who are worried about high costs or crumbling health care."

International

• US president Joe Biden responded to Trudeau's resignation by stating, "The American and Canadian people are safer because of him. And the world is better off because of him."
• US president-elect Donald Trump framed Trudeau's resignation around his speculative annexation of Canada, stating, "Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!"

Read more :The fall of Justin Trudeau

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